Barack's Bracket
The bracket and results: http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/entry?entryID=2813746
I was in line at a paint store waiting for the materials for my weekend chore to be mixed when ESPN's special was aired. I can't explain why it captivated me but I was drawn to the interview with President Barack Obama. It may have resulted from this being the first time I've heard anybody in his capacity rattle of sporting commentary like Dick Vitale, but more likely I was amused by his decision making process to arrive at his selections.
In contrast to the mathematical model presented in class, with alleged good results, the president decision process was wavering between instinct and evidence. This was evident by the discussion Barack had describing how he decided on each pick. He was quoted saying "VCU, I think, has been playing strong, and I hate to say this, because my brother-in-law is in the Pac-10 right now, but the Pac-10 has been looking pretty weak this year," Obama said. "I like that as an upset." In this case he identified an upset without using facts such as strength of schedule, overall record, or individual match-ups. On the other hand Barack did have an instinctual advantage after playing hoops with his correct selection for the winner, UNC. Overall, Barack's bracket correctly identified over 80% of the winners. Barack's bracket was a good example of how people actually make decisions. In this case, examining the method of the decisions is particularly important given the subject, the President of the United States.
Links to BUS650: Keeney's model on how people should decide is a general tool that could help define why different people approach problems differently. In this case, Barack's selections, based heavily off of instinct, likely reflected that this wasn't the most pressing issue on his agenda. On the other hand, I would expect Andy Katz's (ESPN expert) decision process to be completed in a different manner considering that he is an expert whose job relies on accurate and in depth analysis.
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